MANILA, Philippines--The way the mercury rises and falls makes climate scientists scratch their heads these days.

Up north in Baguio City, the summer capital, temperature readings show warmer days ahead, and by 2050, scientists predict that it’s “honeymoon weather” no more.

Down south in warm Zamboanga, people shiver, forcing them to skip bathing for a day or two.

Weather experts of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said if the current trend in climate change would continue, Benguet and Baguio City would lose their reputation as the country’s coldest areas in the next 40 years.

Scenarios

Using Benguet and Baguio’s climatological data from 1951 to 2005, Rosalina de Guzman, a Pagasa weather expert, gave possible climate scenarios for 2020 and 2050 in a forum held recently at the Benguet State University in La Trinidad, Benguet.

De Guzman said data on climate readings for 54 years showed that Benguet and Baguio City would experience more warm days, or periods of maximum temperatures, and fewer cold days, or periods of minimum temperature.

Danny Galate, Pagasa weather specialist in Baguio City, said maximum temperature refers to the warmest or hottest weather in a 24-hour cycle while the minimum temperature refers to the coldest for the same period.

He said the average minimum temperature in Baguio City ranges from 12 to 13 degrees Celsius while the average maximum temperature ranges from 20 to 23 degrees Celsius.

Getting hotter

By 2020, the projected increase in maximum temperature is from 0.7 degree Celsius to 1.1 degrees Celsius, De Guzman said. By 2050, the increase will be from 1.3 degrees Celsius to 2.4 degrees Celsius, she said.

The minimum temperature would also vary, she said. By 2020, the minimum temperature is projected to increase from 0.9 degree Celsius to 1 degree Celsius, and by 2050, the increase will be from 1.9 degrees Celsius to 2.1 degrees Celsius.

Overall, the projected increase in average or mean temperature would be 0.8 to 1 degree Celsius by 2020 and from 1.7 to 2.1 degrees Celsius by 2050, De Guzman said.

She said this should not be taken for granted. “An increase of even 1 degree Celsius would be considered as critical,” she said.

Cold Zamboanga

In Zamboanga City, it was unusual weather when Pagasa reported temperature readings of 21 degrees Celsius on Monday and 17 degrees Celsius on Tuesday.

The coldest temperature recorded in the city in recent days was 23 degrees Celsius.

Zamboanga residents said it was as if they were feeling the Baguio chill.

Armando Cabance, 60, a driver, said the cold weather made him skip bathing for two days. “I thought the cold weather has something to do with rain possibly coming over, but there was no wind or indication it would rain,” he said.

Fernando Perez, 35, a pedicab driver and an arroz caldo (rice porridge) vendor, said it was his first time on Tuesday to miss his market chores.

“Because I cannot stand the cold, it’s like I am inside a refrigerator,” he said.

“It made me wonder what happened to Zamboanga’s usual warm weather in February,” resident Querilyn Aba, 40, said.

Analiza Samson, a school teacher, said she initially thought she forgot to turn off the air-conditioner when she felt it was cold on Tuesday.

“But when I stepped out of my room, the floor was so cold I didn’t even take a bath. I was thinking that maybe snow will soon fall from sky,” she said.

Mystery

Maribel Enriquez, Pagasa’s meteorological officer in Zamboanga, said she could not fully explain why the temperature suddenly dropped.

“In fact, the main office in Manila called up asking me [why] Zamboanga City registered the lowest temperature while the neighboring cities maintained an average temperature,” she said.

Enriquez said the 21 degrees Celsius registered on Monday was already cold for the city. “So just imagine that it has even dropped to 17 degrees,” she said.

The average temperature in the city is 30 to 31 degrees, Enriquez said. She said it was the first time the city experienced a very low temperature in years.

She said residents should expect the cold weather to last until the end of February.