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AN Asian Development Bank
study published last April reveals that global warming is
worse in Southeast Asia than the rest of the world and will
have a devastating economic impact on the region. Southeast
Asia contributes 12 percent of total carbon emissions.
Climate change is happening now
in Southeast Asia, and the worst is yet to come. If not
addressed adequately, it could seriously hinder the region’s
sustainable development and poverty eradication efforts—there
is no time for delay.
“The Economics of Climate
Change in Asia: A Regional Review” is a 15-month ADB study
financed by the British government. It focused on five
countries—Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and
Vietnam. Four—Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and
Vietnam—were the subject of economic modeling. If they do not
mitigate or adapt to climate change, the four countries are
projected by ADB to suffer an average loss of 2.2 percent of
gross domestic product by 2100 on an annual basis, assuming
the impact is mainly on agriculture and their coastal zones.
The 2.2 percent is more than twice the GDP loss of 0.6 percent
average for the whole world.
Losses could be higher,
equivalent to 5.7 percent of GDP each year by year 2100, if
non-market impact (mainly related to health and ecosystems) is
included; and 6.7 percent if catastrophic risks are also
considered. The average loss for the whole world is 2.2
percent for non-market impact and 2.6 percent for catastrophic
risks.
However, if the four countries
are able to adapt, at a cost of 0.2 percent of GDP for
investment in such things are sea walls and drought-and-heat
resistant crops, the four countries could avoid damage
amounting to 1.9 percent of GDP by 2100, on an annual basis,
according to ADB.
ADB cautions though that
adaptation alone is not sufficient. ADB says concerted global
action to mitigate greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions is needed.
The bank suggests global stabilization of HGH concentrations
at 450 to 550 parts per million (ppm) would significantly
reduce the potential losses to the four countries.
ADB identifies a number of
factors that explain why the region is particularly
vulnerable.
Southeast Asia’s 563 million
people are concentrated along coastlines measuring 173,251
kilometers long, leaving it exposed to rising sea levels.
At the same time, the region’s
heavy reliance on agriculture for livelihoods—the sector
accounted for 43 percent of total employment in 2004 and
contributed about 11 percent of GDP in 2006—make it vulnerable
to droughts, floods, and tropical cyclones associated with
warming. Its high economic dependence on natural resources and
forestry—as one of the world’s biggest providers of forest
products—also puts it at risk. An increase in extreme weather
events and forest fires arising from climate change
jeopardizes vital export industries.
Rapid economic growth and
structural transformation in Southeast Asia helped lift
millions out of extreme poverty in recent decades. But poverty
incidence remains high—as of 2005, about 93 million (18.8
percent) Southeast Asians still lived below the $1.25-a-day
poverty line—and the poor are the most vulnerable to climate
change.
The ADB study tells a clear
story: Mean temperature increased at 0.1-0.3°C per decade
between 1951 and 2000; rainfall trended downward during
1960—2000; and sea levels have risen 1-3 millimeters per
year.
Heat waves, droughts, floods,
and tropical cyclones have been more intense and frequent,
causing extensive damage to property, assets, and human life.
Recorded floods/storms have risen dramatically, particularly
in the Philippines, rising from just under 20 during 1960—1969
to nearly 120 by 2000—2008.
Annual mean temperature is
projected to rise 4.8°C on average by 2100 from 1990. Mean sea
level is projected to rise by 70 cm during the same period,
following the global trend. Indonesia, Thailand, and Viet Nam
are expected to experience increasingly drier weather
conditions in the next 2-3 decades, although this trend is
likely to reverse by the middle of this century.
Global warming is likely to
cause rice yield potential to decline by up to 50 percent on
average by 2100 compared to 1990 in the four countries in the
economic modeling; and a large part of the dominant
forest/woodland could be replaced by tropical savanna and
shrub with low or no carbon sequestration potential.
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