MANILA, Philippines—The Department of Agriculture estimates that farm production losses this year due to the El Niño dry spell may fall in the middle of its earlier forecast of between P8 billion and P20 billion.

Agriculture Undersecretary Joel Rudinas told reporters that agricultural damage would go beyond P10 billion if the current dry spell do not end by next month. However, he said it was “unlikely” that farm output losses would reach P20 billion.

“We are still in February and the damage is already way over P2 billion, so it depends on how the weather will develop, but we may go beyond P10 billion. That’s alarming, any amount of damage is alarming, but that’s within our expectation,” Rudinas said.

As of Feb. 16, crop damage due to the El Niño weather phenomenon has more than doubled to P2.84 billion from the previous week’s estimate, according to government documents.

For the Feb. 8 estimate, damage to palay, corn and high value crops such as vegetables and fruits was placed at P1.4 billion.

Early this month, the agriculture agency said that mild El Niño conditions might wipe out P8.09 billion worth of agricultural production and severe conditions could bring this up to P20.46 billion.

The National Food Authority (NFA) has already assured the public that the country had enough rice stocks for local consumption. However, the grains agency also said that it was “ready to import more if necessary,” said NFA spokesperson Rex Estoperez.

Imports are already set to reach 2.48 million tons, breaching the record 2.4 million tons in 2008, when rice prices peaked at $1,080 a ton.

Rudinas said the agriculture department and its attached agencies would use their regular budgets totaling about P15 billion to minimize production losses especially for areas not reached by irrigation.

He said the establishment of shallow tube wells, the lending of irrigation pumps and irrigation repair work should provide some relief to farmers.

The government, which will implement an El Niño mitigation program, has initially looked at 24 “highly vulnerable” areas and 23 “moderately vulnerable” areas in the country based on reports from the weather bureau.

The highly vulnerable areas are Ilocos Sur, Ilocos Norte, La Union, Pangasinan, Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Bataan, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Tarlac, Zambales, Cavite, Rizal, Occidental Mindoro, Palawan, Capiz, Iloilo, Negros Occidental, Misamis Oriental, Zamboanga City, Sarangani and South Cotabato.

Areas considered as moderately vulnerable to the El Niño phenomenon are Abra, Apayao, Benguet, Ifugao, Mt. Province, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Batangas, Laguna, Quezon, Romblon, Sorsogon, Aklan, Antique, Bohol, Samar, Zamboanga Norte, Zamboanga Sibugay, Zamboanga Sur, Bukidnon, Davao Oriental, Davao Sur and Davao City.